The RBA hiked to 4.60 per cent as inflation and unemployment both rose. A harder trade-off than August's hold suggested.

The RBA held at 4.35 per cent on 11 August and narrowed its hike trigger from "if needed" to "if upside risks materialise." The rate did not move; the base case has.

On his 100th day as US Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to sharpen the Fed's inflation warning. The direction of monetary thinking has hardened, again.

The Reserve Bank meets on 11 August. All four major domestic banks expect a hold at 4.35 per cent; most surveyed economists expect a further hike. The data that has arrived since the June meeting is mixed — enough to sustain a case for either action or restraint.

Six months ago, the developed world's central banks were expected to spend 2026 cutting rates. Today, they are contemplating whether to raise them further. The shift in institutional thinking has been quiet and unmistakable — and it matters more than the marginal moves themselves.

With its May increase, the RBA has now delivered three consecutive hikes in 2026 — lifting the cash rate to 4.35 per cent and erasing every cut it made in 2025. The rate cycle has come full circle. The implications for portfolios and borrowers are worth working through carefully.

The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.10 per cent in March — a split decision, in a cycle that was supposed to be easing. With Australian inflation back at 4.6 per cent and the May meeting underway, the implications for portfolios and debt are worth working through carefully.

The RBA held the cash rate at 3.85 per cent in July. For clients carrying variable debt or managing a portfolio through this rate cycle, the implications are specific and worth working through carefully.